United States Retail Sales - Currency Trading Update

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by: fxsolutions
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Date: Sun, 2 Oct 2011 Time: 5:03 AM
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Joseph Trevisani, Chief Market Analyst at FX Solutions (http://www.fxsolutions.com/), provides Forex traders with an overview of currency market activity and news on 14th September 2011, including a look at USA retail sales.

"The American consumer showed little sign of resuming robust life in August as retail sales stagnated, held down by weak income growth and high unemployment.

Sales were unchanged In August, well below the prediction for a 0.2% gain in the Bloomberg survey of economists and the second flat month since the beginning of the second quarter. The monthly average expansion for the five months of the second and third quarters so far has been 0.14%, a far cry from the 0.92% monthly growth in the fourth quarter of last year and the first of this. The July result was revised down to 0.3% from 0.5%.

Retail sales are not corrected for inflation. In July sales grew at 0.3% but inflation rose 0.5%. The two figures are not perfectly correlated but the likelihood is that real sales were flat or negative in July. The August CPI reading will be reported tomorrow at 8:30 am and with a 0.2% forecast it is probable that real sales declined again in August.

Sales excluding automobiles rose 0.1% in August half the Bloomberg prediction. The July reading was revised down to 0.3% from 0.5%. Purchases without autos and gasoline were also 0.1% higher, o.3% had been forecast. July was adjusted lower to 0.2% from 0.3%."

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