Dollar Yen consolidation stage 78.00 - 78.35: FX Solutions Technical note

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by: fxsolutions
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Date: Sat, 19 Nov 2011 Time: 7:56 AM
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Chris Advincula, Market Analyst at FX Solutions (http://www.fxsolutions.com/), provides a report of a Dollar Yen consolidation stage for 4th November 2011:

"With longs remaining in the market after the recent BOJ intervention from Oct 30. the short term resistance is at 78.35 and the key support lies at 77.90. The 21-day exponential moving average since Tuesday this week came off slightly on profit-taking from 78.35 to dip at 77.80, where most bids are situated. A break at 78.40 could bring it higher to the medium-term objective of 79.10 and 79.55. On the lower region, 77.48, is another chart support, however the chance of moving lower to that region is slim since the sentry guard of the market (BOJ) and the Ministry of Finance are watching any speculative moves to a lower rate. The MOF minister Jun Azumi said yesterday that they are still watching the markets closely and ready to take more timely and appropriate steps to intervene.

The Bollinger Bandwith becomes more narrow holding at 0.0005 to 0.0025 only evident of the consolidation move of Dollar Yen between 78.15 and 77.90. The market await the all important U.S. Oct Non Farm Payroll today with a median forecast of +90,000 against last months' +103,000 in Sept. Watch out for the Sept revision as some analyst expect a downward revision to this number which can push the dollar lower, however once again, bids are there at the 77.85/90 level. Be cautious of the high volatility today. The weekend price gaps may occur after the G20 meeting."

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